If you are going to invest in or lease commercial real estate in Florida, it makes sense to carefully select and understand the region where you will be conducting business. Your investment in commercial property will be influenced by the growth prospects of Florida.  Florida ranks as one of the top three best states in which to do business.

Florida Covid-19 Update

May 2020 – Due to the health measures imposed Florida along with the USA is  in the deepest recession since the Great Depression which is projected to last at least 6 months

Forecast Summary for Florida from Institute for Economic forecasting at the University Of Central Florida

Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will contract in the first two-quarters of 2020 and will not reach pre-pandemic levels until the third quarter of 2021. Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will contract 5.2% in 2020 and then grow by 6.7% in 2021. The state’s unemployment rate will rise to over 10% in the fourth quarter of 2020. The unemployment rate should fall to 7.6% in 2021, and 3.9% in 2022. Retail sales will plunge by a quarterly average of $38.4 billion during the first half of 2020.

The sectors expected to have the largest job losses during 2020 are Professional & Business Services (211,700), Leisure & Hospitality (152,300), Trade, Transportation & Utilities (83,300), Construction (48,200), Manufacturing (30,200), and Financial (22,000). Peak job losses will be higher.

Facts about Florida

The Map of Florida is composed of 67 counties. Recent Population trends in Florida: According to the 2010 census Florida still ranks amongst the top three growth states in the US. The state’s population grew about 2.4 percent a year from 2000 to 2007.  Florida´s population actually declined slightly in 2008, the first decline in 63 years. Between the 2000 and 2010 census’s Florida grew from 15.98 million to 18.8 million people. A  University of Florida study conducted in 2011 projects that while population growth will be slower in Florida than pre-recession,  Florida’s population will continue to grow by over 220,000 people per year.  Here is a link to see the historical population growth for any City or County in Florida based on the 2010 census.

Population Growth: It is forecast that in the next few years, Florida will surpass NY as the third most populated state in the USA. Even with the slowdown, Florida’s population, now 18.8-million, is expected to be 26.6-million in 2035. Most of the Florida area population growth comes from net migration to Florida. This comes on top of Floridas natural organic population growth. So Florida’s recent slowdown should be put in perspective. The impact of Baby Boomers retiring in Florida will continue to be significant but the rate of change  in Florida’s Age Demographic is changing.

Job  Growth: Florida’s recession which started in 2007 was more severe than experienced in prior economic cycles with higher unemployment. At the end of 2011, the jobless rate in Florida stood at 10.1 percent. In Florida, the unemployment rate has steadily fallen in the past few years, reaching a four-year low of 8.1 percent in November 2012. The  Leisure and Hospitality market segment is still the top job generator (up 20,700 jobs over the year). However, more higher-paying jobs have been added in the fields of trade, transportation and utilities; professional and business services; manufacturing and financial activities

While the slow recovery will cause the rate in job growth to be slow, Florida is expected to gain at least a million new jobs over the next seven years. , Economists predict that the the Florida will return to its growth track.

Global Hub: Its prime geographic location and economic and political stability put Florida at the center of trade and finance in the Western Hemisphere and it Florida is a global hub. Florida-is now the third-largest exporter of high-tech products. Florida´s top trading merchandise partners are: Brazil, Japan, Germany, Venezuela and China. Florida has targeted 10 high tech sectors for growth.

Transportation: Every Florida business is within 90 miles of a deepwater port. Florida has more direct flights to Latin America & the Caribbean than all other US cities combined. The infrastructure coming to Florida will support future economic growth.  The widening of the Panama Canal will increase shipping and trade in Florida
Quality of Labor: Florida is a state to do business. In 2008 and 2010  CNBC rated Florida the No 1 state in work force quality.

Business Taxes: There is no state income tax in Florida which makes is appealing to individuals and corporations.   Florida has the 5th lowest tax rate overall. Florida’s has a better business tax climate than all but four other states And not one of those four is east of the Mississippi or comes close to being a big population state

Real Estate: It has not been an easy time for Florida but Foreclosures in Florida real estate are down significantly.