Retail Market Tampa Bay Current Phase of Real Estate Cycle

 

The graph below depicts the historical phases of the Retail Market in the Real Estate Market Cycle in Tampa Bay from 2004 to 2012
Indications are that the Retail market is now in the Recovery Phase of the Cycle

The Recovery Phase is typically characterized by:

  • Decreasing Vacancy Rates
  • Low New Construction
  • Moderate Absorbtion
  • Low to Moderate  Employment Growth
  • Negligible to Low Rate of Rental Growth

 

Historical Tampa Bay Retail Market Phase of Real Estate Cycle; Tampa Commercial Real Estate Market;

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DIRECTION =  UP                                                          DIRECTION =  DOWN

0 to 1—  RECOVERY —  Phase 1                       6 to 5—  HYPERSUPPLY  —  Phase 1

1 to 2—  RECOVERY —  Phase 2                       5 to 4—  HYPERSUPPLY  —  Phase 2

2 to 3—  RECOVERY—   Phase 3                       4 to 3—  HYPERSUPPLY  —  Phase 3

3 to 4— EXPANSION—  Phase 1                       3 to 2—  RECESSION       —     Phase 1

4 to 5— EXPANSION—  Phase                           2 to 1—  RECESSION       —     Phase 2

5 to 6— EXPANSION—  Phase 3                       1 to 0—  RECESSION       —     Phase 3

 

The theoretical Real Estate Cycle is often depicted in the shape of  a normal distribution. In practice, the shape may be different.

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